Remain Jumps to Lead on Eve of EU Referendum
British voters lean in toward Europe: 50% stay; 47% go
PALO ALTO, Calif. June 22, 2016 – After weeks of deadlock, British voters have moved decisively – albeit narrowly – towards backing the effort to have the country remain in the European Union, according to a new UK survey by SurveyMonkey, the world’s leading survey platform.
Just a day before the June 23 referendum, 50 percent of all voters say they’ll cast ballots for the UK to stay in the community it joined in 1973; 47 percent plan to vote to Leave the EU.
“Previous SurveyMonkey polls showed a tied or virtually even contest,” said Jon Cohen, SurveyMonkey’s Chief Research Officer. “The new, evident advantage for remain belies the still near-even split, and is certainly close enough to give all Brexit watchers – and pollsters – cause for concern.”
The edge for remain emerged Monday and Tuesday, according to the new survey of nearly 4,000 voters. Late momentum for the remain campaign comes from improved numbers among Tory voters: in the latest poll, 43 percent of Conservative voters support staying in the EU; 55 percent plan to vote leave. Those numbers have shifted from 38 percent remain and 60 percent leave since yesterday’s SurveyMonkey poll release. Labour voters support is unchanged, and they are still firmly in the remain camp: 69 percent remain and 29 percent leave.
Another shift is in the makeup of the likely electorate. As the voting approaches, the EU referendum is now attracting broader set of people, not just those who have been focused on it. Overnight, there’s been slight decrease in the percentage of voters expressing general interest in politics and a dip in high interest in the Brexit.
“The referendum is now pulling in voters who had previously managed to tune out the fierce rhetoric of the campaign,” continued Cohen. “Remain is benefiting from a broader swath of voters now primed to vote.”
Other notable changes include:
- Male voters are now evenly divided 48 percent remain; 49 percent leave. They favoured leave by 10 percentage points in the previous survey.
- Those who call the EU vote the country’s No. 1 issue now divide 48 remain, 50 leave; it was Leave +10 before.
- Among voters who say there’s no chance they’ll change their mind before Thursday’s vote: remain is up by five percentage points. In an earlier survey, leave was up two among committed voters.
In the 2015 UK General Election, SurveyMonkey was one of the only polling companies to correctly predict the outcome, which saw David Cameron's Conservative Party win a majority of seats.
About the research
This SurveyMonkey UK poll was conducted online from 20th-21st June among a national sample of 3,969 British voters who intend to vote in the Brexit referendum. Respondents were selected after answering one of the nearly three million user-created surveys running each day on the SurveyMonkey platform.
SurveyMonkey is the world's leading provider of web-based survey solutions, with more than 3 million survey responses every day. Founded in 1999, its aim is to help people make better decisions. Its technology is based on over 16 years of experience in survey methodology and web development. SurveyMonkey's customers include 99% of the Fortune 500 as well as SMEs, academic institutions and public organisations. The company has over 600 employees throughout the US and Europe, and is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA. For more information, visit www.surveymonkey.co.uk.
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