Massive Generational Divide Underlies “Brexit” Vote
Crucial EU Vote Unmoved by MP Killing
LONDON, UK, 21st June 2016 – Fully 71 percent of the youngest (18-24 year olds) British voters plan to cast ballots for the country to Remain in the European Union in the upcoming referendum, compared with just 38 percent of those aged 65 and up, according to a new UK survey by SurveyMonkey, the world’s leading survey platform. The huge generational gap underscores several great divides in the British electorate on the historic vote.
Male voters favor Leave by a 10-point margin, while women side with Remain by seven percentage points. And those with higher levels of formal education are solidly in favor of Britain’s staying in the EU (68 percent Remain to 30 percent Leave), while those with less support breaking away (41 percent Remain; 56 percent Leave).
The deep splits net out to a still neck-and-neck contest: overall, 48 percent of British voters support Remain; 49 percent back Leave.
The deadlock in the new survey matches that from the SurveyMonkey poll released late last week that had a 48-48 tie. The more than 4,000 interviews for this new poll were all conducted following last week’s tragic murder of pro-Remain Labour MP Jo Cox.
One change however is the somewhat dampened, but still strong, expectation that Remain will prevail. Last week’s SurveyMonkey poll numbers showed 60 percent of UK voters saying they expected the country to stick in the EU, and 37 percent are anticipating an exit. Now, it’s a narrower 55 to 42 percent gap, with similar changes among both Remain and Leave voters.
“Voters are likely adjusting their expectations to the latest twist and turns in the public polls,” said Jon Cohen, Chief Research Officer of SurveyMonkey. “But if the widespread optimism among Remain voters boosts their turnout on Thursday, those predictions could prove decisive.”
While UK voters are deadlocked on the Brexit question, they would clearly align if they were instead facing the U.S. match-up of Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump. Clinton, the former Secretary of State would win in a landslide 75 to 19 percent. Trump garners only 4 percent among Remain voters, but jumps to 33 percent among those supporting Leave, “a result that offers far more than cocktail party conversation,” said Cohen. “There’s a clear correlation between some of the forces in the UK pushing Brexit and drivers of Trump support in the US.”
About the research
This SurveyMonkey UK poll was conducted online from 17th-20th June among a national sample of 4,202 British voters who intend to vote in the Brexit referendum. Respondents were selected after answering one of the nearly three million user-created surveys running each day on the SurveyMonkey platform.
SurveyMonkey is the world's leading provider of web-based survey solutions, with more than 3 million survey responses every day. Founded in 1999, its aim is to help people make better decisions. Its technology is based on over 16 years of experience in survey methodology and web development. SurveyMonkey's customers include 99% of the Fortune 500 as well as SMEs, academic institutions and public organisations. The company has over 600 employees throughout the US and Europe, and is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA. For more information, visit www.surveymonkey.co.uk.
Bite Communications for SurveyMonkey:
0208 834 3486
© 2016 SurveyMonkey. SurveyMonkey, the SurveyMonkey logo, SurveyMonkey Benchmarks, the SurveyMonkey Benchmarks logo, TechValidate and the TechValidate logo are trademarks of SurveyMonkey Inc. and its affiliates. Other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners.